UP THE GARDEN PATH ~ $2k good purchase?

[connivingsumo]

Yes, I know - from folks who have actually played it - 'up the garden path' is not that great of a module. That said, I've seen it normally go for $5k. I have an opportunity to buy it for just under $2k (though it would be $2k after shipping).

I am NOT interested in your opinion regarding if it is a 'good' or 'bad' module; what I AM interested in is your opinion regarding if it is a good investment or not.

Estimated 250-500 printings, sold/awarded only at the garden festival in the UK. Bla-bla-bla- you can research the details. I'm just curious on other "players/DMs" opinions regarding this adventure as an investment. Aside from a coffee stain, this module is in pretty darn good condition.

Thoughts?

[redwullf]

what I AM interested in is your opinion regarding if it is a good investment or not.

As an investment, probably not (see here):

ST1 Up the Garden Path: GD: $1035 (5/02), VG: $913 (2/03), VG: $1252 (10/04),
VG: $1906 (9/05), FN: $51 (4/96), FN: $834 (6/01), FN: $1233 (6/02), FN: $864 (2/03),
FN: $1035 (9/03), FN: $1874 (10/04), VF: $2500 (private sale, 4/05), NM: $1575 (7/00),
NM: $1666 (private sale, 4/01), NM: $1750 (private sale of the previous 7/00 auction, 4/02),
NM: $1909 (10/04)

Also, Troll and Toad (currently out of stock) shows a price of $1499 and Noble Knight has a "near mint" copy for 2.1k.

Seems to regularly auction for well below 2k, with occasional "spikes." I'd research which copies auctioned for the highest values - and I'd bet you'll find they're nearly mint (i.e. no coffee stains). But, this opinion is ONLY based on what I've found: I have absolutely zero experience in rare book/module auctions and no skill at determining their value or investment potential. Consider this my disclaimer if you later find that this module made someone else a millionaire.

[Goblinoid Games]

Take this with a grain of salt, because I'm not much of a collector myself, but I wouldn't invest that money there. If you have a couple of grand you're looking to invest IMHO I'd investigate other options. I'd consider that a risky investment; you just never know what the value will do. In the end it's only worth what someone will pay for it.

[redwullf]

Take this with a grain of salt, because I'm not much of a collector myself, but I wouldn't invest that money there. If you have a couple of grand you're looking to invest IMHO I'd investigate other options. I'd consider that a risky investment; you just never know what the value will do. In the end it's only worth what someone will pay for it.

+1

That's way better than what I said.

[3d6]

Who knows? I can't answer your question. You need to assess your own opinions of the risk and the upside potential, it's a very personal thing. I'll just give my two cents, please take as only my opinions.

I have no knowledge of this module or the market for it, but in general, the area of collectibles is quite speculative. It can be fun and sometimes there is money to be made but it is uncertain. In order to assess the risk, I'd want to be extremely familar with the market. If I were going to think about it as an investment, I'd ask myself if I was willing to risk losing a chunk of that 2K. Also, I have a feeling that coffee stain would fix my decision as a "no." Condition typically pertains very much to demand, a pristine copy might be an easy sell, but less than pristine might be much less in demand, and a coffee stain also gives any future prospective buyer a bargaining chip against you. Also, where do you live and where does the seller live? If in a humid location, that's rough on paper collectibles. What shape are the staples in? Rusted? How's the paper? At all brittle? If you do buy it, do you have a suitable place to store it, in conditions that will slow its deterioration. Are there any auction fees? All that said, it could be fun to own and it might be a money-maker.

I accumulate (not collect, definitely not for investment) only what gaming stuff I'll (at least in theory) use, and prefer low grade copies, especially written on!

*edit* oh, I see you live in co. That's pretty good for humidity (low humidity), isn't it?

[3d6]

Another thing to think about is that the way you're going to realize your cash is by selling to a private individual assumed to be out there sometime in the future, as compared to, say, calling a broker to sell stock. Your money depends on the collector base at the time at which you want to sell the module. What are the trends and habits? How big is that base now? What are the demographics? Will it be bigger in the future? (I believe that's the main thing you're speculating on if you're hoping for a large windfall - increased demand). Will it exist at all in the future? These need to be estimated. You can always call the broker and sell the stock. You may or may not have the collecter base out there in the future to sell the module. You MIGHT make more (or lose less), from the module than from the stock but you also might not even be able to sell the module in the future, or sell it only for very little, that's part of the risk.

Total disclaimer!! not advocating or advising anything at all, just discussing

[austrodavicus]

connivingsumo, the most informed answer you can get will be from the Aceum guys. Those people are hardcore collectors who follow the pricing trends with an almost scientific analysis.

[Blood axe]

I would not invest in anything RPG related. I would go with Gold/Silver.

[connivingsumo]

I just want to say that I have been following my question here, and I truly appreciate EVERYONE'S input!!

Astrodavicus offers a new resource that I am not familiar with, thank you.

To the rest of you:

Your words and opinions are taken to heart, and I appreciate every single one of them. This 'investment' would be for my own personal benefit - being - trying to collect all "non-realm" modules (like Greyhawk, Dragonlance, etc.) from the 70's to 1989. That said, it IS worth what I am willing to pay for it... the person that posted that is correct.

Having weighed the words of others here, and evaluating my own - not so hot - financial situation, I have decided that $2k is a very reasonable price, but not a "steal" with a coffee stain; furthermore, I have plenty to collect to get to my goal without putting myself out on a limb for this module. Maybe it would be a good investment - given the # that were printed and the fact that collecting "classical" D&D modules is probably not going to go away - but it is NOT a good investment for me, or my family, at this time.

I'll consider this topic "closed" unless anyone else has some enlightening information.

Thanks, again, for all of your input. If I agree, or agree to disagree, it is members like you that make this community so wonderful.

Best Regards,
Rik

[tumblingdice]

Well, Rik, whatever you do, may I ask the following favor? If you ever do decide to purchase it, would you consider running it pbp, so we can see what the fuss is all about? I'll gladly play.